The Inverted Yield Curve and Stock Performance - Free Essay Example

Sample details Pages: 3 Words: 1000 Downloads: 1 Date added: 2017/06/26 Category Finance Essay Type Analytical essay Did you like this example? The choice of stocks to invest in during a period of recession has gained importance once again since the global meltdown in 2008. Ideally individuals and fund managers should be able to predict a forthcoming recession and there should be some method of identifying stocks that do better in such periods. In USA, inverted yield curves have been used to predict downturns and some studies have shown that returns from large capitalization stocks are significantly higher than small stocks, during the time of recession. Don’t waste time! Our writers will create an original "The Inverted Yield Curve and Stock Performance" essay for you Create order A yield curve shows the relationship between interest rates and maturities of the debt instruments issued by the same issuer. Long-term interest rates are normally higher than short-term rates, making the yield curve upward sloping.When long-term interest rates are lower than short-term rates, the yield curve is downward sloping, i.e. inverted. Yield curve inversion indicates that long term investors are grim about the future prospects of the economy and thus, are willing to settle for lower long term yields.An inverted yield curve normally signals a recession, which begins about six months later. The stock market usually begins to fall six months prior to any recession. So, the appearance of an inverted yield curve normally is followed very shortly by a falling stock market. Fact: The inverted yield curve is an anomaly, happens rarely, and is almost always followed by a recession. Historically, inversions of the yield curve have precededÂÂ  many of theÂÂ  U.S. recessions. Due to this historical correlation, the yield curveÂÂ  is often seen as anÂÂ  accurate forecast of the turning points of the business cycle. The yield curve inversion was noticed in the USA each time before the 1981, 1991, 2000 and the recent 2008 economic downfalls. Within four to six quarters of the yield curve inversion, the economy witnessed the recession. Some investors may believe that big cap stocks are preferred over mid or small cap stocks when the yield curve is inverted. This belief could be based on the expectation that an inverted yield curve precedes an economic slowdown, i.e., a recession. They may perceive that larger firms tend to be better able to weather economic downturns than smaller firms. The perception may be based on the assumptions that, in general, larger firms: 1) Have better access to capital 2) Can reduce their costs more easily 3) Are more diversified than smaller firms If such an effect can be proved to exist in the context of Indian markets, then it would prove to be an immense help for all classes of stock market investors. As in this case, as soon as an inversion in the yield curve is noticed it would act as an indicator to channelise funds towards big cap stocks and avail of the opportunity of buying these stocks low and enjoying an increased Holding Period Yield in the post inversion period. In a study conducted in the USA on an average, small and mid cap stocks outperformed big cap stocks before the yield curve inversion; big cap stocks outperformed both small and mid cap stocks during the period of inverted yield curve. In particular, the biggest cap stocks performed best with the only statistical significance when the yield curve was inverted. Of course, the outstanding performance could be due to factors other than the inverted yield curve. However, it is a reasonable assessment that the in verted yield curve contributed to the positive performance of the biggest SP 500 group in particular. This is probably because investors would have sought for a safe haven alternative during the period of inverted yield curve. They probably considered the biggest cap stocks as the best alternative during the inverted yield curve. But when the same study was replicated in Indian context it gave entirely different results. This may be because the yield curve inversion in India occurred as an after effect of economic downfall. Each time the USA economy plunged into an economic downfall, it was preceded by a yield curve inversion whether it was before the Great Depression or the crisis in 1981, 1991, 2000 or the recent 2007 downfall. The reason why yield curve send such strong signals in the USA is also because of the developed and the well traded bond market there. But in case of India yield curve has not been able to establish itself as such a strong indicator of recession. W hile in the USA yield curve inverts at least four quarters before the recession, in case of India its more of a reactionary thing. The yield curve in India inverted after the spillover effect of US downturn had already reached India. The stock market after running a boom rally in 2007, started falling sharply mid January 2008 onwards, while the yield curve inversion in India was noticed on 10th -11th Sept. 2008. This is unlike USA where the yield curve inverts at least six months prior to the stock market fall. A reason for this can also be the underdeveloped status of our bond market, where predominantly institutional players like banks and insurance companies are active that too because they have to comply with the respective regulations applicable to them for holding a minimum balance in government bonds. Thus there is no active trading in the bond market in India as the aim of these players is not profit making. Thus in India inversion occurs as an after effect of economic downfall, it cannot have been used as a predictor of recession. Also after the inversion occurred the stocks irrespective of their market capitalization performed better. The returns during the period of inverted yield curve were statistically significant for all of the smallest, biggest and the middle cap stocks. Thus it can be concluded that here in India, there is no specific big firm affect associated with the inverted yield curve. Though one conclusion that can be reached to is that in Indias case whether it is recession or no recession, it is the big cap stocks that give a higher return as compared to the mid and small cap stocks. By Nishtha Anand

Phobia Speech - 902 Words

How would you feel if I dropped a big hairy Tarantula down the back of your neck? What would you do if I took you in a plane until cars and trucks below looked like ants? Would you scream, yell or cry? Would you be left feeling nauseas, or unable to move. Would you hyperventilate and suffer a serious heart attack right there siting on your chair? If you would, you may have a phobia. A phobia is an extreme or irrational fear. Everybody suffers from some kind of fear, everybody in the WORLD suffers from some kind of fear. Except Chuck Norris, he doesn’t have fears, fears have Chuck Norris. Most fears start fron scary events/thing that occur in the sufferers childhood. For example, About 100 years ago, my Great Nana Letty at the age†¦show more content†¦So I went all cave man and â€Å"barefooted† it up to the front door. I turned the handle with no hesitation. A gust of cold southerlies smashed into my face. I forgot to tell you I had Agroaphobia. I thought â€Å" I could never leave the house. That’s just too dangerous† But according to Franklin D Roosevelt† the only thing we have to fear is fear itself† so I stood up, held my head high . I was nervous, but on the surface I looked calm and ready to.. Unfortunately after stepping outside I had to make a quick visit back inside to change my pants.. Yeah†¦. But I made it, after a while I was on my way down the road when I came across the neighbours duck pond . I froze, it hit me. A vivid memory shot through my head. I had Anatidaephobia. I’ve had it since a young lad. It all started when my family was having a quiet picnic in western springs, Auckland. I did nothing wrong, I was minding my own business, in fact I was peacefully munching on a hm, lettuce and mayo sandwich at the park table. It was so vicious and aggressive. It flew strait into me and stole the only thing I was looking forward to after that hard work out on the monkey bars. 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Relationship Between Personality and Job Performance

Question: Discuss about theRelationship Between Personality and Job Performance. Answer: Introduction: Personality is very critical factors in studies that are related to predicting the employees job performance. It is the behaviour that differentiates one employee or person from another one (Beer Brooks, 2011) . Personality is the distinguishing factor that provides the wisdom or insight regarding specific person being able to perform specific job as compared to others (Sackett et al., 2002) . As defined by Kahn (1990) too engagement is the quality of harnessing the organizational members in best possible manner in their specific work roles. Considering the importance of creating engagement and personality traits for an organization several organizations across the globe have started taking personality traits while hiring their employees (Kahn, 1990). Realising the importance and critical importance of personality traits this essay will find out the relationship that exists between personality and their job performances. This essay will also further explain the manner in which the O rganizational Behaviour scholars as well as leaders need to apply the knowledge regarding personality and job performance within their organizations so as to derive maximum benefits from it. Personality Personality that can be defined as an enduring pattern of behaviours, thoughts as well as emotions that help in characterising any person combined with the psychological process which follows those characteristics (Robbins et al., 2013). The set of invisible features as well as practices that is present at the rear end of relatively stable pattern of behaviour while responding to the people, ideas, or objects present in an environment is known as personality (Daft, 2008). The traits that are very much relevant for personality are very much permanent as well as constant all through the work life in the personality behaviour model (Denissen et al., 2011 ; Gerber et al., 2011 ; Myers, 1998) . There are several theories of personality that helps in examining the similarities as well as variances in any person. The similarities that are found can be used for foretelling the persons performance as well as their behaviour, because these similarities help in finding the collective attributes present in the human nature (Hogan Shelton, 2006) . On the other hand the variances help in measuring the individual performances and are very beneficial in describing both human behaviours along with performances. Even the experts in the field of personality believe that every individual has quite long term as well as stable traits that cast impact on the employees behaviour at their workplace (Denissen et al., 2011 ; Gerber et al., 2011 ). In some of the researches conducted on personality , the scholars found that personality acts as quite effective tool that helps in prediction of the job performances of employees in any organization (Ozer Benet-Martinez, 2006 ; Schulman, 2011). This technique is mostly used by the Organizational Behaviour scholars as well as leaders during the process of personnel selection within organizations (Barrick Mount, 2000). In the organizational behaviour stream there has been major focus of researchers on both personality as well as organizational outcomes. According to the ;latest studies personality does cast impact on the environments in which the individuals live (Chen, 2004) (Barrick et al., 2002) and it also plays critical role in choosing the situation in which the individual person makes a decision to stay . The preferences given to the organizational environments, the activities liked by individual as well as the cycle of individuals with which one thinks of interacting, all de pends upon the individuals personality (Barrick Mount, 2000) . Such kind of values is also found to be strongly related to person-organization (P-O) fit. In this highly competitive world there is no such organization that depicts an unchanging or subservient behaviour and this mainly arises from the culture (Silverthorne, 2004) . Culture is one such aspect that helps in finding how much perfectly a person fits in a specific organization as the fit represents the feeling of comfort with that culture (Oreilly 2004; p 10). It is directly connected with the employees output levels as well as helps in finding the turnover of employee in any organization (Schmidt Ryan, 1993) . Any culture that is present and prevalent in any organization helps in development of customs related to employee behaviour, which in turn is effected by the P-O fit that finally impacts the end organizational output (Silverthorne, 2004) . Therefore, this clearly establishes the reality the personality traits of employee has positive connection with organizational productivity. This also gives a clarity regarding the fact that if the traits of the employees are match ing the organizational culture, then the productivity of the organization will certainly be improved or increased as desired by the organization. Personality and Related Theories In the research related to personality the literature indicates certain personality theories that are the key theories like : Psychoanalytic Theories; Biological theories; Humanistic Theories; Trait Theories as well as Behavioural , Social learning and Cognitive theories. Amongst all these theories of personality trait theory is the one that is widely acceptable as well as considered to be a, leading personality related theory that also considers the salient features that have more tendency of leading towards certain specific behaviours. The variances shown by the person in the trends towards development of a steady pattern of actions , thoughts as well as feelings are called a traits (Myers, 1998) . All the theories that are related to personality traits indicate that the behaviour of a person can be determined with the help of certain personality traits. Thus the Big Five Personality Theory also known as Big Five Model or the Five Factor Model or FFM has been considered the most wi dely acceptable model for personality. It demonstrates that the personality of human beings consists of five very reasonable as well as self determining aspects that provide a complete taxonomy as well as helps in reviewing the dissimilarities of an individual. It rather provides the real core present in the human nature because of these dissimilarities . Thus personality in general can be divided and then examined with the help of five highly distinguishable as well as distinct elements that are : Character; Disposition, Temperament, Intellect along with Temper. The five characteristic elements of the Big Five Model are: Neuroticism, Openness to Experience, Agreeableness, and Extraversion along with Conscientiousness. Openness is mainly connected with creativity at their workplace and there might be an unknown connection between job performance and creativity (George Zhou, 2001) . For example any creative individual can unintentionally help in enhancing the productivity by coming up and implementing innovative or highly unique methods at workplace. Openness shows a positive correlation with standardized measures related to achievement as well as knowledge and it is found to be modestly connected with cognitive ability. Out of all the Big Five traits openness has highest correlation with verbal score of SAT (Noftle Robins, 2007) . Out of the five crucial and important personality factors conscientiousness is found to be highly consistent as well as a major predictor in case of workplace performance (Barrick Mount, 2000 ; Behling, 1998 ; Dudley et al., 2006) . For example when conducted a meta analysis regarding the prediction of job performance of employees considering the personality dimensions it shows that the broad measures of conscientiousness helps in predicting the overall job performance (Barrick et al., 2001) and it also assists in controlling the cognitive ability of employees (Hough Oswald, 2008) . Along with the overall job performance , several broad measures related to conscientiousness have shown that they help in predicting several other valuable behaviours of employees at workplace for example leadership , organizational citizenship along with undesirable behaviours for example procrastination (Judge Ilies, 2002) . Therefore conscientiousness is considered to be the best noncognitive perfor mance predictor that can be used across wide variety of work results as well as job types. The people exhibiting neurotic behaviour are found to be less happy, that also impacts the employees ability to do the tasks assigned in proper manner (Colquitt et al., 2009) . The people who are neurotic are found to be showing lesser job satisfaction , moreover they are more likely to fixate as well as remember the past negative experiences that they encountered at the workplace (Watson Clark, 1984). Such kind of features exhibited by neurotics influences both the job performance of the employees as well as their feelings regarding their job. The neuroticism comes associated with insecurity and this can finally lead to leaving or quitting the job(Mkoji Sikalieh, 2012) as well as dissatisfaction amongst the individual in relation to their job (Beer Brooks, 2011) . This might be the result of uncertainty regarding job performance or the individuals inability to perform or complete the task (Judge Hies, 2002) . Neuroticism is one such trait that is found to be helpful in case of t he jobs that need novel ideas along with formation of creative suggestions (Colquitt et al., 2009). Extraverts are the people who look for social relationships with their co-workers, finally resulting in increased relationships within their organizations. They also tend to show swift socialization as well as integration within their organization (Louis et al., 1983 ; McCrae Costa, 1991). This kind of process that helps in integration is found to be associated with positive work performance along with reduced likelihood of the employees to quit (Colquitt et al., 2009 ; Maertz Campion, 2004). Occupations are found to be positively linked with extraversion, mainly with the jobs that need training proficiency, leadership abilities as well as social interactions (Lim Ployhart, 2004) . Extraversion is found to be positively associated with leadership abilities (Lim Ployhart, 2004) along with level of job satisfaction (Judge et al., 2002) . Therefore in the workplace the extraverts are found to exhibit higher levels of satisfaction because of their ability to go through simulations of optimal levels within the social environment , whereas the introverts are reported to show lesser job satisfactions because of this reason (Neubert Taggar, 2004). Agreeable individuals show the ability to adapt that helps them to establish as well as maintain healthy relationship that is rewarding also at the same time , with their colleagues , place of business as wells co-workers (Olver Mooradian, 2003). Some of the qualities that are associated with agreeableness for example thoughtfulness, kindness and likeability, tends to result in successful relationships with their co-workers. This also enhances employee commitment as it encourages the employee to stay with the organization for long term. The positive opinion held by the workers regarding the work environment helps in enhancing performance along with increasing their motivation to stick to the job (Meyer Allen, 1991) . Most of the times it has been found that agreeable employees are very much high performing individuals as they are forever willing to understand as well as adapt to their current environment at work . In case of interpersonal oriented jobs and to help others agreeablen ess helps in prediction of performance that took a significant one. Unlike various other personality features for example Conscientiousness, Agreeableness is not found to be connected with bringing in success amongst the workforce for all kinds of jobs, because some of the occupations need certain level of disagreeableness in order to achieve success (Mkoji Sikalieh, 2012) . In the same way Agreeableness is negatively connected with the leadership abilities, on the other hand it has positive correlation with the working with the teams (Noftle Robins, 2007) . Job Performance and Personality Job performance can be defined as the participation shown by employees in order to achieve the organizational goals (Awadh Wan Ismail, 2012) . One of the very crucial and dependent variables that have been researched for past many decades is the job performance. AS per the theory job performance is a multidimensional construct that ahs a contextual dimension as well as a task dimension (Bhatti et al., 2014) . The overall value that can be predicted and has been derived from the behaviour of employees carried out over a particular set of time period is called as the job performance (Motowildo et al., 1997) . The job performance of employees certainly impacts the organizational outcomes and it also makes sure that the organizational functioning is all right. Job performance also comprises of skills as well as knowledge that helps in guiding the employees to conduct several activities in the organization. The researchers have also argued that the relationship between the Big Five personality and the job performance are much more result of social aspects related to the workplace as compared to their ability (Neubert Taggar, 2004) . This indicates that the organizations need to cast positive impressions amongst the employees regarding themselves. Thus the behavioural pattern of any good leader in the form of a leader is one who provides full cooperation, speaks in favourable manner as well as provides support that goes beyond the job performance of the employees. Application of OB Knowledge by Leaders and Scholars People belonging to different kinds of backgrounds will be possessing different kinds of norms, values or attitudes, rather such people also have different cultural heritages. Definitely during their work environments they will show their personal cultural heritages. Such kinds of differences will definitely give rise to different personalities of any individual that finally helps in finding their behaviours or actions that finally impact the leader-follower interactions. So in some cases the leaders might be possessing strong or weaker personality that impacts other performances of the employees as well as it also determines the manner in which the organization will be performing (Alkahtani et al., 2011) . Thus the personality traits of the leaders are much reasonable in the sense to expect that it can also affect the personal attitudes as well as values as per the research done in the field (Olver Mooradian, 2003). Openness towards experiences is positively connected with very man y successful training activities. An open individual mainly shows optimistic attitude towards learning and he/ she really enjoys learning that casts a positive impact on the training outcomes . Conclusion The above analysis indicates that there exists a correlation between personality as well as job performance. However Agreeableness along with Openness towards experiences is found o show close relation with job performance. Research has also shown that Emotional stability as well as Conscientiousness is also found to be connected with job performance. Both Agreeablenesses along with Openness to experience show a stronger relationship with the various criterions used for training. The basic four variables of personality traits that is Extraversion, Openness to experience, Agreeableness and Conscientiousness have positive as well as significant connection with the job performance of the employees. On the other hand neuroticism has a negative correlation with job performance. It is crucial for the leaders and scholars of organizational behaviour to use this knowledge while doing personnel selections or hiring because job performance which is related to the personality traits of employee s also impacts the reputation as well as productivity of the organization. The personality of leaders plays vital role because it impacts the job performance of the employees. Thus some of the good determining factors that the leaders should consider regarding leadership personality includes agreeableness, extraversion, conscientiousness and openness to experience as it will help in increasing the job performance because personality is found to be linked with the performance of their followers. Bibliography Alkahtani, A.H., Abu-Jarad, I., Sulaiman, M. Nikbin, D., 2011. The impact of personality and leadership styles on leading change capability of Malaysian managers. Australian Journal of Business and Management Research, 1(2), pp.70-98. Awadh, A.M. Wan Ismail, W., 2012. The impact of personality traits and employee work-related attitudes on employee performance with the moderating effect of organizational culture: the case of Saudi Arabia. Asian Journal of Business and Management Sciences, 1(10), pp.108-27. Barrick, M.R. Mount, M.K., 2000. The Big Five personality dimensions and job performance: A Meta-Analysis. Personnel Psychology, pp.2-50. 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Why Socioeconomic Status Affects the Health of Children: A Psychosocial Perspective. A Journal of the Association for Psychological Science, 13(3), pp.112-15. Colquitt, J., LePine, J. Wesson, M., 2009.. Organizational behavior: Essentials for improving performance and commitment. New York: McGraw Hill. Daft, R.L., 2008. Leadership. Cincinnati, OH: Thompson/South-Western. Denissen, J.J., Van Aken, M.A. Roberts, B.W., 2011. Personality Development across the Life Span. Oxford, UK: Wiley-Blackwell. Dudley, N.M., Orvis, K.A., Lebiecki, J.E. Cortina, J.M., 2006. A metaanalytic investigation of Conscientiousness in the prediction of job performance: Examining the intercorrelations and the incremental validity of narrow traits. Journal of Applied Psychology, 91, pp.40-57. George, J.M. Zhou, J., 2001. Understanding when bad moods foster creativity and good ones dont: The role of context and clarity of feelings. Journal of Applied Psychology, 87, pp.687-97. Gerber, A.S. et al., 2011. 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Lim, B. Ployhart, R.E., 2004. Transformational leadership: Relations to the five-factor model and team performance in typical and maximum. Journal of Applied Psychology, 89, pp.610-21. Louis, M.R., Posner, B.Z. Powell, G.N., 1983. The availability and helpfulness of socialization practices. Personnel Psychology, 36, pp.857-66. Maertz, C.P. Campion, M.C., 2004. Profiles in quitting: Integrating process and content turnover theory. Academy of Management Journal, , 47, pp.566-82. McCrae, R.R. Costa, P.T.., 1991. Adding Biebe und Arbert: The full Five-Factor model and well-being. Personality and Social Psychology, 17, pp.227-32. Meyer, J.P. Allen, N.J., 1991. A three-component conceptualization of organizational commitment. Human Resource Management Review, 1, pp.61-89. Mkoji, D. Sikalieh, D., 2012. The five-factor model of personality in the workplace. [Online] Available at: https://www.personalityresearch.org/papers/neubert.html. [Accessed 4 September 2016]. Motowildo, S.J., Borman, W.C. Schmit, M.J., 1997. A theory of individual differences in task and contextual performance. Human performance, 10(2), pp.71-83. Myers, D.G., 1998. Psychology. New York: Worth Publishers. Neubert, M. Taggar, S., 2004. The impact of poor performance on team outcomes: an empirical examination of attribution theory. Personal Psycholog, 57, pp.935-68. Noftle, E.E. Robins, R., 2007. Personality predictors of academic outcomes: : Big Five correlates of GPA and SAT scores. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 93, pp.116-30. Olver, J.M. Mooradian, T.A., 2003. Personality traits and personal values: a conceptual and empirical investigation. Personality and Individual Differences, 35, pp.109-25. O'Reilly, C., 2004. Corporations, culture, and commitment: Motivation and social control in organizations. California Management Review. Ozer, D.J. Benet-Martinez, V., 2006. Personality and the Prediction of Consequential Outcomes.. 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Iranian Hostage Crisis free essay sample

We chose our topic because we found it very interesting, how the CIA decided to rescue the six hostages, by making a fake movie and going into Iran, saying that they were scouting for locations for a movie when they actually went to the Canadian embassy where six people were hiding. Tony Mendez thought of this magnificent idea. The CIA gave the six roles to be in the fake movie, for example Director, Photographer, Costume Designer, Location Scouter etc. Eventually they got them to the airport to take the six hostages home with the iranian people fooled that they were people scouting for a perfect place to record their science fiction movie. The CIA person/ Tony Mendez along with the six hostages made it back to the U. S. safely. Â  How we conducted our research. The way we conducted our research is that to begin with we, read the book, and watched the movie, Argo which gave us a good idea or point of view on what happened during the crisis. We will write a custom essay sample on Iranian Hostage Crisis or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page Then we began finding primary and secondary sources and started conducting more research. Then we wrote letters to president carter and Tony Mendez, we are currently still waiting for a response. Then we began our script by which we already started working on our bibliography and process paper. We are currently searching for photos and continuing on the script for the documentary, we are also creating annotations for our bibliography on easybib. com.How we selected our presentation category and how we created our project. The reason we chose to pick our category is because we thought it suited our topic better than any other category. We thought this because this way we are able to explain what happened while the person watching the documentary can see photos about the topic, which may help them understand better because some people tend to learn easier visually than just reading or hearing someone explain a topic. The way we created our project is on a site called pixorial. Â  How our project relates to the NHD theme. Our project relates to the NHD theme because it is the responsibility of the CIA and the U. S. to try their hardest to get all the hostages out of Iran safe and sound. Our topic also follows the NHD theme of rights too. It is a part of the theme rights because with the Shah running Iran, Iranians felt like they didn’t have any rights, also the Shah didn’t treat them with respect. The Iranians were mad at the U. S. for not giving the Shah back to them so they could kill him. At that time the Shah was in the United States due to the cancer he was attempting to fight off.